Probability Index
A transparent, living, backtested win-probability score for every bill and cause. Every score carries its full factor breakdown in plain language — never a black box, never false precision.
Session status: the 2025–26 session adjourned sine die on September 12, 2026. Scores below are retrospective seeds from the 2023–24 backtest. Live tracking resumes when the 2027–28 session convenes on December 7, 2026.
Seed scores
Sixteen notable 2023–24 bills, scored retrospectively with the full 18-factor model. Pick one to see the score, every factor that moved it, and how the score evolved.
Backtest
119 bills from the 2023–24 session — 59 chaptered, 30 vetoed, 30 died — scored under a pre-committed rule: 60+ predicts chaptered, 40 or below predicts failure, 41–59 is a toss-up (excluded from the hit rate).